Anxiety or Normalcy? You tell me.

The major part of anxiety, at least how it affects me, is always wondering if I am the only one who thinks a certain way.  Basically, are my thoughts normal, or am I morphing into a psychopathic being?  I know, that alone may sound ridiculous.  But here are some of the things that pop into my head.

If I take my shoes off when the plane is at altitude, with clean socks on, and non stinky feet, am I still going to end up on Passenger Shaming?

Did I ever make it on People of Walmart, even though I try my best not to?

Does anyone else bring the trash out in their PJs?

I get angry if I'm in therapy, because I just don't want to dig up every single little thing from my past.

Can my neighbors hear my TV, computer or sewing machine?

If I exercise, will I shake the first floor ceilings?  Or fall through them?

Am I the only one who can kill plants after watering them?

How many bottles of wine are too many to keep around?

Now, this isn't to say that all of my "anxiety" thoughts are this easy.  I have true anxiety regarding certain people in my life, and experience nightmares about meeting them in other life situations.  You know, the OMG what do I do if..... type of situation.  And I try to squash those as they come up, but I'm working on some life changes to mitigate those factors.

I'm asking about the millions of questions I have each and every day, and if they are normal or not.  What's your take?

Will SSDI get a COLA increase in 2017? Maybe.

Social Security, and Social Security Disability, receive annual raises known as a Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA.  COLA is calculated by taking the increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter of year 1 to the third quarter of year 2, reflecting a COLA raise in January of year 3.  Confused yet?  You're not alone.

The likely answer as of now?  Likely no.

Wait, what????  But January of 2016 saw no COLA, so why not now?  Well, its because January 2016 had no COLA.

Yes, you read that right.

Here's how it works (per The Social Security Administration).  The third quarter of each year is what counts.  So the third quarter of 2016, which is July, August and September, gets averaged, and the same numbers are pulled for the prior year.  If the year over year is positive, then there is a COLA adjustment.  Here is how the 2016 COLA was calculated, and the data is from the link in this paragraph.

So, we're now in 2016, and wondering about a COLA increase to be effective in January 2017 benefit payments.  We can't actually calculate what will happen, because we are just beginning this quarter, but we can guess.

If we take the chart above, and apply it to the prior decade, we should be able to determine this years COLA.  The following is my own work, with data from another Social Security Page.

So, this chart shows that there are two years (2009 and 2015) where there was not a COLA because the year over year CPI-W was not positive.  But wait.....there's more.  The government has a nifty little function that says if a COLA is not utilized due to negative growth, then they get to go back to the last year in which it was a positive, which can actually make the next years numbers lower than actual inflation.

This chart, from this SSA page shows the actual COLA per year.  See how 2007 has a COLA of 2.3, and 2008 of 5.8, in both charts?  Great.  But now look at 2009.  Just the math shows a negative - SSA gives us a zero.  And now, 2010 in the math set shows a positive of 1.5%.  So that should be a COLA of 1.5%, right?  No.  Since 2009 was zero or less, 2010 gets calculated over 2008.  Using my own math again, that calculation shows:

Oh great, a negative.  So 2010 didn't get a COLA, because 2009 didn't get a COLA.  

Now lets look at 2011.  My number, above, is 4.2% based on 2011 over 2010 math.  But we just saw that 2010 didn't get an increase because of 2009.  Will that impact 2011 as well?  Look at the Social Security table (two up from here).  2011 shows as 3.6%.  How is that, when year over year is 4.2%?  We need to go all the way back to 2008, again.

2012, 2013 and 2014 all had gains, so they were "normal" years.  But 2015 was another bad year, economically.  The 2015 over 2014 COLA calculation looked like this:

Now, we need to use all of our historical figures to determine, if we can, what might happen in the third quarter of 2016, producing the COLA figures that will impact benefits in January 2017.  We don't have the CPI-W yet for the second or third quarter.  The first quarter number is up, and we can utilize a year over year on that figure to determine what might happen.  But, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who is in charge of CPI-W, does produce a file that shows the calculated increase on a monthly basis, and it is available through May 2016, at this website.  So we can't actually go with the right quarter, but we can guess.

OK, lets delve in.  Per the math that we've been doing, the quarter 1 (not quarter 3) 2016 CPI-W, based against the quarter 1 2014 CPI-W, shows an increase of .1%.  But, using the BLS numbers, which are already in percentage form, there is a negative of 4.2%.  Now, my math is likely wrong on the last portion - I may not be analyzing correctly.  So please bear in mind that I'm only human and only giving my opinion!

My opinion is this:  Looking at 2016 compared to 2014, and considering the economy, I don't think that this summer's economic trends will be strong enough to support a COLA increase, for the second year in a row.  I wouldn't put money on it (not that I have any to spend, since this affects me greatly).

Any questions?


PS:  Any and all opinions expressed are entirely my own, with no bearing on the United States Government, Social Security Administration, or Bureau of Labor Statistics.  All facts are subject to error, and again are not the fault of the government if they are in a data set typed by the author.  Basically, I'm posting what I think is right based on what the government publishes, but I don't want to get sued.  Please be nice.  Thank you.

To: The police who respond to mental health calls

I know this will not describe all of you.  I wish it would only describe a slight minority, but in my experience, it is the majority.  When you get the call for a mental health case, and need to secure the scene for EMS, I understand you are only doing your job.  But let me tell you how it feels from my side of the call.

If you’re called, I’m usually in a very angry, agitated state.  I have tried my prescribed meds, that normally work.  They aren’t working strongly, but I’m trying to calm down.  I want to cover my ears to the noise, concentrate on my breathing, and think of a long hot shower.  Then you show up, and take over.  I don’t get any choices anymore.  I can tell you that I’m angry and trying to calm down.  I can tell you I don’t plan on harming myself or others.  I just need a little more time to calm down.  I have no guns.  I have kitchen knives, but I don’t plan on harming anyone.  I have no history of violence.  I just want to sleep.  

“Do you want to go to the hospital?”

“No”

“Do you need to go to the hospital?”

“No - they won’t do anything for me that I haven’t already done”

“Well, here’s what’s going to happen.  I got called, and I don’t have time to deal with mental illness.  So you’re going to the hospital, or you’re going to jail.”

There, you said it, jail.  As if to imply that being mentally ill is a crime.  It’s not.  I am not a criminal.  I am sick.  But at that point, I did not need the hospital.  You have not given me a choice.  You have taken my choices and my dignity away.  And, you have now saddled me with an $800 ambulance ride and a $500 emergency room visit.  All because you didn’t have the time to deal with me.  This is why I don’t like cops sometimes, because they have an ego that this isn’t what they signed up for.

Here’s what would be great.  Sit down, or get eye level with me, talk to me.  Ask me what's wrong.  Standing over me with your hands on your belt, barking orders, isn’t helping.  Its hurting.  I’m not going to hurt you, but I need someone on my side sometimes.  Talk to me, make sure that I’m getting what I need.  But don’t treat me like a criminal, because I’m not one.  I’ve been sentenced enough by this diagnosis.  I’m being judged enough in life.  Please, don’t convict me too.

So, how should I feel? You tell me.

I'm not sure if this is my anxiety or depression talking, but all I can tell you right now is that I feel hopeless and sad, yet again.  This summer is one of my worst ever.  I have been sick for weeks, and only got my independence (in the form of my car) back last week.  I am sad because I feel so very alone.  I have a few family members, I have a few friends online whom I've never met in person.  But other than that, I have no one.  I am so broke that I have no money to go out for coffee with friends.

I'm about to put in an application for a different apartment complex.  Its in a small village, nearby family but distancing myself from my current anxiety triggers.  But the majority of residents are senior citizens, not my age group.  Also, due to timing, I might need to move back home temporarily between apartments.  I can't stay here past September 30th, and I can't move in there until something opens up in 3-6 months.

And then, there's the feeling that I'm just turning into an old maid, no good, damaged materials, no one will ever want me again.  I want to date, marry, have a child.  I'm on several dating sites.  I'm even Facebook friends with a guy who I met on a site, and who I would really like to date, truly, but I can't seem to win a date, and understand its because he truly is better than me.  Am I so far gone that I don't deserve happiness anymore?

I know what some will say - in order to be happy, you need to be happy alone first.  Well, I've been alone for 9 months, in an apartment.  I've established routine.  But I'm not happy.  I'm lonely, bored, despondent.  I'm not happy because I feel I have no one who truly cares.  To me, being in a relationship is important, because I want to make someone else feel loved, and to feel loved.

And then there are others of you who will say to just look around the world.  Look at Syria, Dallas, the Phillipines, Fort MacMurray.  There are so many in the world worse off than you.  Yes, this is very true.  But shelter and food aren't everything.  Love is necessary.  Love is needed.  Love is required in life.

Sometimes, I wish I could move away, far away, and just start over.  I can't stop being bipolar, I can't get away from my crappy credit score, I can't erase my past.  But I wish I could find a new support system, find a reason to smile every day.

Any ideas on how I can smile?  Is this how I should feel?  You tell me.